India is likely to face a delayed monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the official monsoon onset may be pushed back by at least a week. The delay comes amid growing concerns over a potential El Nino event, which could reduce rainfall to 90% of the long-period average, leading to severe heat and water shortages across the country.

According to IMD’s latest forecast, southern states including Kerala are expected to receive below-average rainfall during the monsoon season. The first-stage forecast released on April 30 had already hinted at a deficit. The IMD now warns that El Nino conditions could develop between May and July, with a 82% probability, and persist through the end of the year with a 96% chance, as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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The upcoming El Nino is feared to be stronger than the record-breaking event of 2015-16. El Nino, characterized by unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, disrupts global weather patterns and often triggers droughts in India. With the monsoon already delayed, the country is bracing for extreme heat and water crises in the coming months.